The results show that variables which were derived from a utility and awareness perspective were a more accurate and managerially useful predictor than the demographic variables derived from the widely accepted theory based on the work of Rogers. A survey of over 1000 consumers examined adoption of an innovative technology: compact fluorescent lightglobes. This paper examines the accuracy of predictions made about likely first adopters based on the most widely accepted theory and compares them to predictions made by examining the relevant past behavior of consumers. Predicting which consumers will be amongst the first to adopt an innovative product is a difficult task but is valuable in allowing effective and efficient use of marketing resources. Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice, 11, 84-95. Behavioral versus demographic predictors of early adoption: a critical analysis and comparative test. MCDONALD, Heath, CORKINDALE, David & SHARP, Byron 2003. Mental and physical availability must be a much bigger story than differentiation. Since we do see Double Jeopardy all over the place that suggests that real-world differentiation is pretty mild. For marketers this is pretty important, pretty insightful, we wouldn’t get Double Jeopardy if brands were highly differentiated appealing to different segments of the market.
Because brand share depends largely on mental and physical availability, rather than differentiated appeals of different brands. The statistical explanation of Double Jeopardy is that it is a selection effect.
We don’t tend to ask why is there an opposite and equal reaction for every action (Newton’s first law), there just is. One explanation is simply that it’s a scientific law, it describes a bit of the universe, and that’s it… it’s simply how the world is. … the Smith’s skimping and not installing double glazing ignoring their builder’s adviceĪll are better or worse explanations, depending on your point of view. … the wind, the pitch, the sun in Jonny’s eyes … Jonny playing baseball on the front lawn when his Mum told him not to … the speed and mass of the ball resulting in sufficient force to break the molecular bonds in the glass of that window
It’s worth noting that causal explanations turn out to be ‘in the eye of the beholder’… e.g. Though the most complete explanation is in the forthcoming “How Brands Grow part 2”. This is discussed in How Brands Grow (e.g. I was recently asked for a causal explanation of marketing’s Double Jeopardy pattern.
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